By Dean Goodman

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Director Peter Jackson's hobbit film ran rings around its competition at the North American box office for the fourth consecutive weekend, but industry observers said Sunday they expect the fantasy will fall to the war movie ``Black Hawk Down'' next weekend.

The worldwide total for ``The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring'' is projected to surpass $500 million in ticket sales by the end of this weekend, a spokeswoman for New Line Cinema said on Sunday.

In the United States and Canada, the film made $228.3 million after 26 days of release, boosted by ticket sales of $16.2 million during the three-day period beginning Jan. 11. The film took in about $280 million overseas.

The New Line spokeswoman declined to forecast the film's ultimate tally since it continues to pull in both new and repeat business, and the studio hopes it will figure prominently during awards season.

The film's unbroken four-week spell atop the North American charts was last matched by two movies from the fourth quarter of 2000, ``Meet the Parents'' and ``How The Grinch Stole Christmas.'' The last movie with a longer reign was ``The Sixth Sense,'' which ruled for five weeks in the summer of 1999.

The Russell Crowe mad genius drama ``A Beautiful Mind'' (Universal) remained No. 2 in its second weekend of wide release with $15.8 million, while the teen comedy ``Orange County'' (Paramount) debuted at No. 3 with $15.1 million.

Rounding out the top five, the Vegas crime caper ``Ocean's Eleven'' (Warner Bros.) fell one place to No. 4 in its sixth weekend with $7.5 million. ``The Royal Tenenbaums'' (Touchstone), a black comedy starring Bill Murray and Gwyneth Paltrow, held steady at No. 5 with $6.4 million after boosting its theater count by 154 to 905 outlets. The films' respective totals are $162.5 million and $30 million.

One other movie entered the top 10, director Robert Altman's ``Gosford Park'' (USA Films). The acclaimed, 1930s murder mystery set in England jumped nine places to No. 9 with $3.8 million in its third weekend after quadrupling its theater count to 518 engagements.

'ALI' ON THE ROPES

The pricey ``Ali'' was bounced out of the top 10 in its third round. The picture, starring Will Smith as famed boxer Muhammad Ali, fell four places to No. 11 with $3.2 million.

A spokesman for Sony Corp.-owned Columbia Pictures, which put up half the $105 million budget for the film's North American rights, hoped ``Ali'' would benefit from next Sunday's Golden Globe Awards, where Smith has been nominated as best actor in a dramatic film. The 20-day total for ``Ali'' is $54.4 million.

Columbia also hopes for better things with ``Black Hawk Down,'' which has been playing to packed theaters in New York and Los Angeles for the past three weekends. Director Ridley Scott's depiction of a failed American military operation in Somalia expands to about 3,000 theaters nationally on Friday.

The film earned $725,000 from 16 theaters this weekend, up from four theaters last weekend -- taking its 17-day haul to $1.5 million.

The only other wide new release next Friday, when business will be boosted by the Jan. 21 Martin Luther King holiday, is ''Snow Dogs,'' starring Cuba Gooding Jr.

Overall business this weekend fell to its lowest level in four weeks, according to data collected by Exhibitor Relations Co. The top 12 films grossed $89.8 million, down 14 percent from last weekend. During Dec. 14-16, the total was about $87 million.

'MIND' REACHES $59 MILLION

After 24 days in release, director Ron Howard's ``A Beautiful Mind'' has grossed $59 million. Along with ``Moulin Rouge'' it leads the field at the Golden Globes with six nominations. The Globes are considered a rough portent for the Academy Awards which will announce its nominees on Feb. 12.

With its $15.1 million bow, the college comedy ``Orange County'' will be ``hugely profitable'' for Paramount, a studio spokeswoman said. The Jake Kasdan-directed film, starring Jack Black and Colin Hanks, cost about $16 million to make.

The worldwide total for the ``Harry Potter'' movie is projected to reach $845 million by the end of the weekend, officials at Warner Bros. said. In North America, the film fell one spot to No. 10 with $3.2 million, taking its 59-day total to $305 million. It should end its run with about $325 million, WB domestic distribution president Dan Fellman said. The studio calculated the film would gross about $17 million overseas this weekend, taking its foreign total to $540 million.

Universal Pictures is a unit of Vivendi Universal . Paramount Pictures is a unit of Viacom Inc . USA Films is a unit of USA Networks Inc . New Line is a unit of AOL Time Warner Inc. . Touchstone Pictures is a unit of Walt Disney Co.

The top movies in North America -- January 11-13

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Following are the final data for the top 10 movies at the North American box office during the January 11-13 weekend, according to studio figures released Monday by Exhibitor Relations Co. Inc.

Film Three-day Cumulative

Title Gross Gross

1. The Lord of the Rings .......... $16,201,260

BOX OFFICE SO FAR: $228,320,875

2. A Beautiful Mind .......... $15,220,705

BOX OFFICE SO FAR: $58,420,716

3. Orange County .......... $15,053,226

BOX OFFICE SO FAR: $15,053,226

4. Ocean's Eleven .......... $7,738,381

BOX OFFICE SO FAR: $162,676,461

5. The Royal Tenenbaums .......... $6,408,153

BOX OFFICE SO FAR: $29,983,861

6. Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius .......... $5,523,825

BOX OFFICE SO FAR: $69,084,552

7. Vanilla Sky .......... $5,024,693

BOX OFFICE SO FAR: $88,459,249

8. Kate & Leopold .......... $4,744,908

BOX OFFICE SO FAR: $37,209,760

9. Gosford Park .......... $3,684,621

BOX OFFICE SO FAR: $6,641,077

10. Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone .......... $3,674,325

BOX OFFICE SO FAR: $305,311,880

Reuters/Variety REUTERS

John L.: